The Bantamweight division remains one of the most volatile and exciting landscapes in the UFC. This upcoming weekend, former champion Cody Garbrandt returns to the Octagon to face a rising threat from China, Long Xiao.
This matchup represents a classic crossroads fight: a veteran looking to prove he still belongs among the elite against a hungry prospect eager to make a name off a legend.
The Evolution of Cody Garbrandt: Speed vs. Durability
Cody Garbrandt’s rise to the top of the 135-pound division was nothing short of cinematic.
His masterclass performance against Dominick Cruz to capture the title remains one of the greatest displays of boxing and movement in MMA history.
However, the years following that peak have been a roller coaster of highlight-reel wins and devastating setbacks.
Garbrandt still possesses the fastest hands in the division. His ability to counter-strike and pivot remains world-class. In recent outings, we have seen a more composed “No Love.”
Under the tutelage of the team at City Kickboxing and his long-time coaches, he has attempted to move away from the “pocket-war” mentality that led to several knockout losses.
For Garbrandt to win this fight, he must utilize his superior wrestling credentials to dictate where the fight takes place and avoid the wild exchanges that have been his Achilles’ heel.
Who is Long Xiao? Analyzing the Chinese Prospect
Long Xiao enters this bout as a relatively unknown quantity to the casual fan, but hardcore observers know he is a serious threat.
Hailing from the UFC Academy in China, Xiao earned his spot through grit and a well-rounded skill set.
He isn’t just a striker; he brings a physical, grinding style that can wear down opponents who aren’t prepared for a fifteen-minute dogfight.
Xiao’s biggest advantage in this fight is his momentum. Unlike Garbrandt, who carries the weight of past wars, Xiao is fresh and looking to implement a high-volume attack.
He thrives when he can pressure his opponents against the fence, utilizing clinch work and short elbows to disrupt their rhythm.
Key Statistical Breakdown
When looking at the numbers, the experience gap is wide. Garbrandt has faced the absolute pinnacle of the sport, including multiple bouts with TJ Dillashaw, Jose Aldo, and Rob Font.
This level of competition has sharpened his fight IQ, even if his chin has been questioned.
- Cody Garbrandt: 14-6-0 record. Known for a 71% takedown defense rate and lightning-fast striking accuracy.
- Long Xiao: 26-8-0 record. A massive amount of professional experience outside the UFC, showing a preference for decision wins and tactical striking.
Xiao’s path to victory lies in testing Garbrandt’s endurance. If he can survive the initial first-round blitz that Garbrandt is famous for, the tide could turn in the later stages of the fight.
The Tactical Chess Match: Striking and Grappling
The striking battle will be a game of inches. Garbrandt wants to stay in the center of the cage where he can use his footwork to create angles.
He needs to lead with the jab and follow up with his signature right hook. If he gets stationary, Xiao will capitalize.
Long Xiao’s striking is more linear. He uses long kicks to keep distance, which might be a mistake against someone as fast as Garbrandt.
However, if Xiao uses those kicks to set up double-leg takedowns or to push Cody into the cage, he can neutralize the former champion’s power.
Garbrandt’s wrestling is often underrated because he rarely uses it offensively, but against a grinder like Xiao, “No Love” might need to dust off his Ohio State wrestling roots to keep the fight standing.
UFC 326: Cody Garbrandt vs Long Xiao Prediction
This fight is harder to call than the odds might suggest. If the Cody Garbrandt who fought Brian Kelleher shows up, disciplined, fast, and sharp, he should be able to pick Xiao apart.
Garbrandt is simply the more polished athlete and possesses the “one-punch” power that Xiao has rarely encountered.
However, the “No Love” of old often gets emotional. If Xiao lands a hard shot and Cody decides to fire back without regard for defense, it becomes a coin flip.
Final Verdict: We expect Cody Garbrandt to show a veteran’s composure. Look for Garbrandt to use his superior speed to land heavy combinations while using his wrestling to stay upright. Xiao will be competitive and durable, likely taking the fight to the judges’ scorecards, but the technical gap in striking will favor the American.
Prediction: Cody Garbrandt via Unanimous Decision.
What’s Next for the Winner?
A win for Garbrandt keeps the dream of another run at the top ten alive. It proves he can still act as a gatekeeper to the elite tier of the Bantamweight division.
For Long Xiao, even a close loss against a former champion boosts his stock significantly, but a win would catapult him into the limelight as the next big thing from the Asia-Pacific region.