Dricus Du Plessis Thinks Strickland Can Beat Khamzat

When Dricus Du Plessis speaks about the matchup between Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland at UFC 328, the sport is obligated to listen. Du Plessis is the only active fighter on the planet who has shared the Octagon with both men — he lost the middleweight title to Chimaev at UFC 319 last August, and he owns two victories over Strickland, most recently at UFC 312 in February 2025. That firsthand experience gives his assessment a weight that no analyst or commentator can match. And his assessment, delivered this week in appearances on both SA Boxing Talk and The Ariel Helwani Show, is a clear one: Sean Strickland has a genuine chance to pull off the upset.

The comments landed immediately across the MMA community, primarily because Du Plessis is not simply a neutral observer offering a considered opinion. He is a man who lost convincingly to the champion and has beaten the challenger twice. For him to back Strickland — publicly, in detail, with specific tactical reasoning — carries a dimension that most pre-fight punditry does not.

The Striking Argument: Why Du Plessis Gives Strickland the Edge

The core of Du Plessis’s argument is rooted in the striking matchup, and it is more nuanced than a simple declaration that Strickland punches harder or faster. Du Plessis made clear that what makes Strickland genuinely dangerous in the standup is not raw power or speed — it is the discomfort he creates through style and volume. His output is relentless, his angles are unconventional, and his willingness to absorb punishment while continuing to throw makes him exceptionally difficult to time and shut down.

Du Plessis described Strickland’s style as one that looks unimpressive from the outside but feels entirely different when you are the one inside it. He pointed to the opening round of their first fight — a round Du Plessis acknowledged losing — as evidence that even a fighter of his calibre needed time to adjust to the rhythm and timing that Strickland imposes. For Chimaev, who has never faced a striker with this profile at middleweight, that adjustment period carries genuine risk.

Du Plessis also addressed Chimaev’s striking directly, and the assessment was blunt. He stated that based on his time in training with Chimaev and his experience fighting him, the champion’s striking is not at the level of elite middleweights and that Strickland’s output would create problems that Chimaev’s ground game cannot immediately solve if the fight stays standing.

The Wrestling Question: Can Strickland Stay on His Feet?

Du Plessis was careful not to dismiss the enormous challenge that Chimaev’s wrestling represents. He acknowledged that Chimaev’s ability to control opponents on the ground was the central reason the champion defeated him at UFC 319 — and that the same tool, applied effectively, could be the path to another title defense on May 9. But here is where Du Plessis introduced a factor that has been largely absent from the broader pre-fight conversation: Strickland’s physical strength and his technical ability to return to his feet after being taken down.

Having fought Strickland twice over the full championship distance, Du Plessis has direct experience of how hard it is to keep him on the canvas. He noted that Strickland’s scramble technique and cage work are significantly more developed than his public reputation suggests, and that the physical strength he brings to clinch and grappling exchanges is routinely underestimated by people who only watch his fights rather than feel them. This is the quality that Du Plessis believes could neutralize enough of Chimaev’s wrestling to keep the fight competitive through all five rounds.

How Each Fighter Wins: The Breakdown

What Kamaru Usman Added to the Picture

Du Plessis was not the only voice this week offering a nuanced take on the UFC 328 matchup. Kamaru Usman — another fighter with firsthand experience against both men — weighed in on his Pound4Pound podcast with an analysis that reinforced several of Du Plessis’s points while adding a layer of tactical context. Usman observed that Chimaev’s entire game is built around one primary weapon: his wrestling. When that weapon lands cleanly and consistently, opponents are dominated. When it is disrupted or neutralized, Chimaev must operate as a more complete mixed martial artist — and Usman believes that version of the champion is less tested than the rankings imply.

Usman acknowledged Chimaev’s striking has improved — pointing specifically to his fight with Gilbert Burns, where he dropped Burns multiple times in the standup — but noted that Strickland’s striking is considerably more advanced than Burns’s and that the level of adjustment required will be significant. Both Du Plessis and Usman arrived at the same essential conclusion from different directions: this fight is not as one-sided as the odds suggest.

Du Plessis’s Own Road Back

Away from his comments on the UFC 328 main event, Du Plessis addressed his own situation briefly across both media appearances. His planned comeback at UFC 327 was cancelled due to injury, leaving him sidelined for nearly eight months since losing the title. He did not provide a specific timeline for his return but indicated he was progressing well in his recovery and that a fight date in the second half of 2026 remained the target.

The winner of Chimaev versus Strickland on May 9 will almost certainly become Du Plessis’s primary target when he does return. He made no secret of his desire to reclaim the middleweight title that was taken from him in August. Whether that path runs through a rematch with Chimaev or a third meeting with Strickland depends entirely on what happens in Newark — and Du Plessis, more than anyone, will be watching with a very specific interest.