The upcoming fight between Jailton Almeida vs Rizvan Kuniev is one of the most intriguing heavyweight matchups at UFC Vegas 113 on February 7, 2026.
Both fighters bring contrasting styles and career trajectories into the Octagon, making this bout a must-watch for MMA fans and bettors alike.
In this detailed breakdown, we compare their strengths, weaknesses, and project how this fight might play out.
Jailton Almeida enters this fight with a professional record of 22-4-0 with the bulk of his wins coming via stoppage.
According to the stats, he has recorded 8 wins by KO/TKO and 13 submissions, showing a well-rounded finishing ability.
His submission rate is especially impressive, with nearly 60 % of his wins coming via submission.
Almeida stands at 6’3” with a 79-inch reach, uses an orthodox stance, and combines strong grappling with improving striking.
Almeida’s UFC tenure is solid, boasting an 8-2 record inside the Octagon against high-caliber opponents.
He’s known for relentless pressure, strong top control, and excellent takedown ability.
However, his recent loss to Alexander Volkov via split decision exposed some gaps in his offensive variance, where he struggled to inflict damage despite controlling large portions of the fight.
Rizvan Kuniev, on the other hand, comes in with a 12-3-1 (1 NC) record and presents a different challenge.
Standing 6’4” and weighing in heavier than Almeida, Kuniev carries power and striking output that can be dangerous if the fight stays on the feet.
His Strikes Landed per Minute (SLpM) of 4.45 vs. Almeida’s 2.25 suggests a significant edge in volume striking, though his strikes absorbed per minute (2.45) highlight defensive concerns.
Kuniev also displays strong takedown defence with a high TD defence rate (~90 %), complemented by a capable striking game that allows him to hang with more experienced fighters.
His UFC debut saw him in a close split-decision loss to Curtis Blaydes, indicating he can compete with seasoned heavyweights even when stepping up in competition.
At the core of this fight is a clash between Almeida’s grappling dominance and Kuniev’s striking aggression.
Almeida thrives when he secures takedowns and works his patented ground control, moving to submissions or heavy top pressure, which often forces his foes to expend energy attempting escapes.
His ability to slightly outstrike opponents on the ground and land high-percentage submissions makes him a threat in every phase of combat.
Conversely, Kuniev’s strength lies in striking volume and takedown defence. If he can keep the fight upright, his higher pace and striking output could wear down Almeida.
Kuniev also has power in his hands, which in a heavyweight bout is never to be underestimated.
His defensive stats suggest that while he takes more damage per minute than Almeida, he can still absorb and fire back, especially in extended exchanges.
Almeida holds the advantage in takedowns and grappling, with a takedown average significantly higher than Kuniev.
If Almeida implements his wrestling early and often, he could dictate where this bout goes. Against lesser wrestlers, he’s shown the ability to smother and break fighters down, making this a key factor in the prediction.
If Kuniev keeps the fight standing, he may find success. His higher striking volume and willingness to trade shots gives him an edge in stand-up battles.
However, his defensive absorption rate indicates vulnerability, especially if Almeida closes distance effectively.
Heavyweight fights can often slow down due to the size of the athletes, but Almeida has a proven cardio base from wrestling exchanges.
If the fight goes into the later rounds, groundwork control could tire Kuniev quicker, swaying judges toward Almeida in decision scenarios.
Considering Almeida’s grappling edge, takedown prowess, and ability to control the pace, he is the slight favorite going into this matchup.
He may not dominate striking exchanges, but if he successfully brings Kuniev to the mat and imposes his heavy top pressure, he could grind out a decision win or even risk a late submission.
Almeida’s experience at the UFC level and his record of finishes also opens the door for a third-or-fourth round stoppage if Kuniev visibly slows.
Kuniev’s best path to victory is keeping the bout on the feet and landing consistent power shots, possibly staggering Almeida or triggering a knockout.
Given Almeida’s defensive grappling and fight intelligence, surviving these exchanges could be challenging for the Russian.
Nonetheless, if Kuniev can stifle Almeida’s takedowns and keep the pace fast, an upset decision isn’t out of the question.
The Almeida vs Kuniev matchup at UFC Vegas 113 promises a classic heavyweight contest between contrasting styles.
Judges and fans alike will be compelled by Almeida’s wrestling attacks and Kuniev’s striking output. On balance, Almeida’s grappling and fight control make him the projected winner, especially if he executes his game plan early.
Expect a technical, attrition-based fight where the grappler often has the advantage at the end of three rounds.
Whether you’re a dedicated MMA analyst or a casual fight fan, this bout should deliver compelling action and strategic depth when the cage door closes at the APEX.
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