The UFC 325 preliminary card features an intriguing welterweight matchup between Jonathan Micallef and Oban Elliott, scheduled for January 31, 2026 in Sydney, Australia, at the Qudos Bank Arena.
This bout has garnered attention as both fighters bring contrasting strengths in striking, grappling, and fight experience.
In this fight preview and prediction, we break down both athletes’ profiles, recent performances, stylistic advantages, key metrics, and ultimately forecast how this fight might unfold.
Fighter Profiles: Who Are Jonathan Micallef and Oban Elliott?
Jonathan Micallef: “The Captain”
Record: 8-1-0 (Pro MMA)
Height: 6’0″
Reach: 77″
Weight Class: Welterweight (170 lbs)
Stance: Southpaw
Australian welterweight Jonathan Micallef, nicknamed “The Captain,” enters this bout riding positive momentum.
Micallef has impressed with a well-rounded game that combines aggressive striking with solid wrestling fundamentals.
In his UFC debut at UFC 312, he picked up a unanimous decision win over Kevin Jousset, showing poise and control over three rounds.
Micallef’s career statistics point to a high pace: he lands about 4.77 significant strikes per minute with a 43% strike accuracy.
This reflects an active offensive mindset and willingness to engage. His southpaw stance gives orthodox fighters a different look, and his 50% takedown accuracy suggests he can mix grappling with striking when advantageous.
Micallef’s lone loss on the record came early in his career, and he has since put together a 3-fight win streak across promotions before signing with the UFC. Overall, he’s seen as an up-and-coming talent in the 170-lb division.
Oban Elliott: “The Welsh Gangster”
Record: 12-3-0 (Pro MMA)
Height: 6’0″
Reach: 72″
Weight Class: Welterweight (170 lbs)
Stance: Orthodox
Hailing from Wales, Oban Elliott carries the moniker “The Welsh Gangster.” Elliott boasts more professional experience than Micallef, with a 12-3 record, and has fought across Cage Warriors and now the UFC.
Much of his success has come via decision victories (50% of his wins), demonstrating his ability to control fights and grind out sustained performance.
He also holds three KO/TKO wins and three submission victories, underscoring his versatility.
Elliott earned his UFC contract through the Dana White Contender Series and started strong, but he suffered a setback in June 2025 when he lost a unanimous decision to Seok Hyeon Ko.
He enters this match with motivation to re-establish himself in the welterweight ranks.
Statistical Matchup: Where the Fight Might Be Won
When evaluating UFC 325 and the matchup between Micallef and Elliott, several areas of contrasting skill sets emerge:
Striking Output and Accuracy
- Micallef maintains a higher strike output per minute but absorbs more strikes than Elliott does; he lands consistently and presses forward.
- Elliott may land fewer strikes per minute, but tends to absorb fewer as well and boasts slightly better striking accuracy.
This contrast suggests Elliott might be more measured and defensive in his approach, while Micallef looks to throw more aggressively.
Grappling and Control
Micallef’s wrestling ability and takedown metrics indicate he will look to mix his offense by taking his opponent down, controlling the pace, and dictating where the fight takes place.
His solid pressure wrestling could frustrate Elliott if the latter does not defend takedowns effectively.
Elliott’s experience in longer fights and decision wins shows he can maintain pace over three rounds and manage positioning to his advantage, particularly if he keeps the fight standing and avoids extended grappling exchanges.
Fight Prediction: How Micallef vs Elliott Could Play Out
Scenario 1: Micallef by Decision or Ground Control
If Micallef imposes his grappling early and keeps momentum with steady forward pressure, he has a path to a decision win.
His activity rate and pace favor a three-round fight where he can outwork his opponent in volume and control. His southpaw stance may also create angles that disrupt Elliott’s rhythm.
Prediction: Micallef wins by decision if he secures takedowns and avoids prolonged striking exchanges.
Scenario 2: Elliott Stays Long and Claims Control
Elliott has shown the capacity to make fights last and accumulate points across rounds. If he uses distance management and counters effectively, he can slow Micallef’s pressure and rack up significant strikes.
Elliott’s defense could frustrate Micallef’s forward momentum and secure a decision on his own terms.
Prediction: Elliott wins a decision if he keeps the fight standing and nullifies takedown attempts.
Community and Market Trends
Data from Tapology community picks shows Elliott with a slightly higher percentage of picks compared to Micallef, indicating fan expectations lean toward Elliott winning, often through strikes or decision.
Still, combat sports prediction markets show varied opinions and fairly close odds, suggesting this is a competitive bout where small advantages could decide the outcome.
Keys to Victory
Micallef Must:
- Use his reach advantage and southpaw stance to disrupt Elliott early.
- Mix takedowns with striking to avoid stalling momentum.
- Maintain a relentless pace without overextending.
Elliott Must:
- Control distance and avoid early grappling exchanges.
- Counter Micallef’s pressure with accuracy and timing.
- Pace himself to win rounds rather than chasing early finishes.
Final Prediction: Who Comes Out on Top?
This welterweight fight at UFC 325 shapes up as a tactical matchup between offense-first pressure (Micallef) and measured control (Elliott).
If Micallef successfully lands takedowns and keeps Elliott on the back foot, he could convincingly take rounds, especially in front of his home crowd.
However, Elliott has the tools to make this a technical fight that skews his way on strikes and minimal damage taken.
Final Pick: Jonathan Micallef by close decision. The edge comes from his activity and ability to blend wrestling with striking.
That said, this contest is likely to go the distance and hinge on who controls pace and octagon positioning.
Conclusion: UFC 325 Welterweight Showdown
The matchup between Jonathan Micallef and Oban Elliott at UFC 325 promises to be an exciting welterweight battle where styles collide.
Fans should expect a full three-round tactical affair with each fighter striving to impose their strengths.
Micallef’s aggressive pace and grappling could be the deciding factor, but Elliott’s experience and accuracy make him a threat in every exchange.