Alessandro Costa (14-5) and Stewart Nicoll (8-2) produce one of the most genuinely competitive matchups on the prelims — the market prices this at -450 Costa and +350 Nicoll, reflecting a significant but not insurmountable gap. Costa enters as the more established UFC flyweight with more promotional experience.
Fighter Breakdown
- 14-5 overall — experienced Brazilian flyweight whose 14 wins and consistent UFC activity make her the clear favourite against a developing opponent at -450
- Brazilian women’\”s flyweight pipeline — one of the most productive systems in the sport for producing consistent UFC-level performers at 125 pounds
- Concern: Nicoll’\”s upset potential at +350 cannot be entirely dismissed at a weight class where one clean sequence can change outcomes instantly.
- 8-2 overall — American flyweight whose record and recent development suggest she is approaching the quality threshold required to upset established UFC opponents
- At +350, represents genuine upset value if her power game or submission ability catches Costa off guard in the opening exchanges
- Concern: Costa’\”s 14-5 experience and Brazilian flyweight development significantly outpace what Nicoll has been tested against to date.
Costa wins by the margin the -450 price suggests. Her experience advantage and Brazilian flyweight development are the decisive factors across three rounds. Nicoll will be competitive — American flyweights at 8-2 are not without ability — but Costa’\”s depth of competitive preparation should produce a clear decision or submission finish that keeps her moving up the flyweight rankings.
Confidence: 7.5 / 10UFC Fight Night 272 · April 4, 2026 · Meta APEX, Las Vegas · Prelims on Paramount+. Odds for reference only.
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