The bantamweight clash between Mario Bautista and Vinicius Oliveira is one of the most anticipated bouts on the UFC Vegas 113 card, scheduled for February 7, 2026 at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada.
This full five-round headliner has fight fans debating who will emerge victorious in what promises to be a compelling, action-packed showdown.
Fighter Profiles: Experience and Attributes
Mario Bautista – The Well-Rounded Contender
Mario Bautista enters the bout with a professional MMA record of 16-3-0, fighting out of Glendale, Arizona.
Competing primarily in the UFC’s bantamweight division, Bautista stands 5’9” tall with a reach of 69 inches and has faced high-level competition throughout his career.
His record reflects a balanced skill set:
- 3 wins by TKO
- 6 wins by submission
- 7 wins by decision
This blend shows he is comfortable both on the feet and on the ground, capable of controlling the pace of a fight, whether striking or grappling.
Bautista has competed against several top contenders and former champions, and though he’s coming off a loss, his overall experience inside the Octagon gives him a tactical edge.
Bautista’s style is methodical; he typically uses sharp striking combinations and leg kicks to set up openings while remaining defensively sound.
His ability to adapt mid-fight and maintain control over distance makes him a top-10 bantamweight threat, even when facing explosive opponents.
Vinicius Oliveira – The Heavy Hitter
On the other side stands Vinicius “Lok Dog” Oliveira, a Brazilian slugger with a 23-3-0 record and an active six-fight winning streak, including an undefeated 4-0 slate inside the UFC.
He also stands 5’9” tall but boasts a slightly longer reach at 70.5 inches, an asset for striking exchanges.
Oliveira fights out of Porto Alegre, Brazil, with Sombra Team MMA, and his record highlights his power:
- 16 wins by KO/TKO
- 2 wins by submission
- 5 wins by decision
A heavy hitter with a physically imposing frame, Oliveira is known for his knockout ability. Opponents must respect his punching power, which has consistently finished fights early when he lands clean shots.
However, Oliveira’s style leans heavily on aggression and striking, which sometimes affects his stamina over five rounds.
Despite his high finishing rate, his tendency to push forward relentlessly can lead to defensive openings that seasoned fighters can exploit.
Statistical Breakdown and Tactical Matchup
When analyzing this fight from a tactical standpoint, it’s essential to look beyond just wins and losses.
Striking and Pace
Bautista tends to work at a high pace with calculated striking, utilizing combinations and leg kicks to control range.
Oliveira, meanwhile, thrives on power and heavy strikes. If Oliveira connects early, he could change the dynamics quickly with his knockout threat.
The key factor here is accuracy vs. power. Bautista’s accuracy and volume could help him out-point Oliveira over the distance, while Oliveira’s power shots could make every second dangerous.
If Oliveira fails to land a decisive blow early, Bautista’s rhythm and adjustments may frustrate him as the rounds progress.
Grappling and Ground Control
Bautista has a slight edge in grappling and ground control, thanks to his balanced record with six submission wins and wrestling experience.
He is comfortable taking the fight to the mat to slow down aggressive strikers. Oliveira can handle himself in scrambles, but his strength lies primarily in striking.
This puts Bautista in a position where he can exploit Oliveira’s forward momentum by mixing takedowns and clinch work, scoring points while avoiding wild brawling.
Oliveira’s defensive grappling will be tested if the fight hits the ground, and Bautista’s composure could tilt rounds in his favor.
Fight IQ and Experience
Experience inside the UFC plays a major role in tough fights like this. While Oliveira has looked impressive since his UFC debut, Bautista’s experience against elite competition gives him a strategic advantage.
He’s faced former champions and top contenders, learning to adjust mid-fight and handle pressure.
His recent loss to Umar Nurmagomedov may have cost him momentum, but it also offered valuable lessons at the highest level.
Oliveira’s rise, meanwhile, is impressive, but this is his first five-round main event where cardio and fight IQ are tested on another level.
Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira Prediction
This fight is compelling because it pits Bautista’s technical versatility against Oliveira’s knockout power. Here’s a likely scenario based on fighter profiles and matchup dynamics:
Prediction: Mario Bautista by Decision
Why?
- Bautista’s well-rounded skill set allows him to control the fight at various ranges.
- His grappling and ability to mix striking with takedowns can nullify Oliveira’s power to some extent.
- Going the distance favors Bautista’s calculated pace and championship experience.
While Oliveira certainly has the power to end this fight explosively, Bautista’s composure and adaptability, particularly if Oliveira tires in later rounds, could swing the judges’ scorecards in his favor.
Oliveira’s aggressive style makes him a real threat early, but over five rounds, Bautista’s consistency may prove decisive.
Final Thoughts
The Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira matchup at UFC Vegas 113 is more than just a main event — it’s a test of styles.
One fighter brings brute force and finishing power, while the other offers precision, strategy, and layered offense.
Fight fans should expect an exciting pace and high drama, with opportunities for both men to assert dominance.
For bettors and pundits alike, this fight could tip in favor of the more versatile tactician.
But with Oliveira’s knockout appeal, this prediction isn’t without risk, making UFC Vegas 113 essential viewing for MMA enthusiasts.