Muin Gafurov vs Jakub Wiklacz Prediction

On February 7, 2026, at UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira in Las Vegas, two bantamweight contenders will collide in a matchup that has fans debating the outcome and style contrast.

This fight features Muin Gafurov, a seasoned and gritty competitor from Tajikistan, against Jakub Wiklacz, a Polish bantamweight with strong grappling credentials and a deep pro record.

Both fighters enter with momentum, but contrasting strengths will define the pacing and likely the winner of this bout.

In this article, we break down the fighters’ records, technical advantages, styles, and how this fight might play out inside the octagon.

Fighter Profiles – Background & Career Trends

Muin Gafurov – The Experienced All-Around Fighter

Muin Gafurov steps into the cage with a professional MMA record of 20 wins and 6 losses, making him a well-tested veteran with varied experience in world-class competition.

This includes multiple appearances under the UFC banner where he’s faced quality opponents and shown resilience in tough fights.

Gafurov is 29 years old and fights at 135 lbs in the bantamweight division, standing 5′7″ tall with a 68″ reach.

His style blends striking with solid grappling fundamentals, allowing him to adapt depending on his opponent’s strengths.

While he doesn’t rely on standout power, Gafurov consistently applies pressure, mixes range, and uses wrestling to create openings.

Notably, Gafurov’s recent win over Rinya Nakamura was considered a significant upset, showing that he can work the distance, control the fight tempo, and grind out decisions against highly regarded fighters.

Jakub Wiklacz – Heavy Submission Threat and Technical Wrestler

Jakub Wiklacz enters this bout with a professional record of 17 wins, 3 losses, and 2 draws. He also fights at bantamweight and brings a slightly taller frame at 5′9″ with a 72.8″ reach, a measurable advantage over Gafurov.

Wiklacz is known for his grappling prowess and submission skills. A large share of his wins have come via submission, indicating a strong ground game that can be especially dangerous against opponents willing to trade on the feet.

His MMA journey includes prominent success in European promotions, including a run as a titleholder in KSW before transitioning to the UFC.

In his latest high-profile outing, Wiklacz impressed the MMA world by defeating Patchy Mix in his UFC debut, taking the veteran contender by split decision.

That win showcased his ability to handle pressure, maintain grappling control, and deal with elite-level opposition.

Style Comparison – How the Fight Might Unfold

Striking Range and Distance

From a striking perspective, Jakub Wiklacz carries a clear reach advantage (more than four inches), which can dictate early ranges and keep Gafurov at bay.

With greater reach, Wiklacz can jab, circle, and pick his shots while avoiding many of Gafurov’s forward pressure attacks.

Gafurov, though effective in exchanges, often needs to get inside against rangier fighters to land meaningful strikes or attempt takedowns.

That dynamic makes early footwork and strike timing critical if he wants to stay competitive on the feet.

Grappling and Ground Control

One of the biggest storylines in this fight is grappling control and submissions.

Wiklacz has shown strong finishing instincts on the ground, with the majority of his victories coming via submission, indicating he prioritizes leverage and positioning once the fight hits the mat.

Gafurov is competent in wrestling and defending takedowns, but he doesn’t rely on nuanced submissions as often as his Polish counterpart.

If Wiklacz is able to secure takedowns and sustain top control, he could significantly influence where rounds are scored. This makes grappling exchanges an area where he could gain a slight edge.

Cardio and Fight Pace

Both fighters have dependable cardio that allows them to keep a steady pace through three rounds.

Gafurov has shown durability and persistence in drives toward late rounds, while Wiklacz has maintained consistent output in grappling and striking transitions throughout his career.

However, because Wiklacz enters from a strong positional base on the ground, he might have more opportunities to control the pace through grappling dominance rather than aggressive striking flurries.

The fight could trend toward a slower, more methodical affair where positional control and ground scoring become decisive.

Community and Betting Insights

Fan and betting communities are closely split on this fight. According to active polls and community picks leading into UFC Fight Night, a larger share leans toward Wiklacz when considering the likelihood to win via decision. This reflects his edge in both grappling and reach.

Betting analyses reflected by mixed odds also suggest a slightly higher probability for Wiklacz, though the margin isn’t overwhelming.

Statistical predictors estimate outcomes with marginal separation, indicating this is a tightly contested matchup with many variables still in play leading up to fight night.

Who Has the Edge? – Prediction Summary

Where Gafurov Could Prevail

Experience vs. top competition: Gafurov has faced a deeper slate of UFC opponents, which may give him a composure edge.
Balanced skill set: Capable of switching tactics if striking or grappling becomes ineffective.

Where Wiklacz Has the Advantage

Reach and physicality: He can control range and keep Gafurov on the outside.
Submission threats: A strong ground game could secure rounds or force errors.

Considering all aspects of fight style, physical advantages, and recent form, Jakub Wiklacz appears slightly more likely to win, especially if he maintains range and leverages his grappling proficiency.

At the same time, Gafurov’s ability to adapt and pressure could keep this fight competitive through all three rounds.