UFC Fight Night: Alessandro Costa vs Stewart Nicoll Prediction, Odds, Analysis

Fight PredictionWomen’\”s Flyweight · Prelims · Near Pick’\”em

Alessandro Costa (14-5) and Stewart Nicoll (8-2) produce one of the most genuinely competitive matchups on the prelims — the market prices this at -450 Costa and +350 Nicoll, reflecting a significant but not insurmountable gap. Costa enters as the more established UFC flyweight with more promotional experience.

Alessandro Costa 🇧🇷

-450

Favourite · 14-5 · Women’\”s Flyweight

Stewart Nicoll 🇺🇸

+350

Underdog · 8-2 · Women’\”s Flyweight

Fighter Breakdown

Alessandro Costa 🇧🇷

14-5 overall — experienced Brazilian flyweight whose 14 wins and consistent UFC activity make her the clear favourite against a developing opponent at -450
Brazilian women’\”s flyweight pipeline — one of the most productive systems in the sport for producing consistent UFC-level performers at 125 pounds
Concern: Nicoll’\”s upset potential at +350 cannot be entirely dismissed at a weight class where one clean sequence can change outcomes instantly.

Stewart Nicoll 🇺🇸

8-2 overall — American flyweight whose record and recent development suggest she is approaching the quality threshold required to upset established UFC opponents
At +350, represents genuine upset value if her power game or submission ability catches Costa off guard in the opening exchanges
Concern: Costa’\”s 14-5 experience and Brazilian flyweight development significantly outpace what Nicoll has been tested against to date.

⚡ MMAPredict Official Pick

Alessandro Costa

Decision or Submission

Costa wins by the margin the -450 price suggests. Her experience advantage and Brazilian flyweight development are the decisive factors across three rounds. Nicoll will be competitive — American flyweights at 8-2 are not without ability — but Costa’\”s depth of competitive preparation should produce a clear decision or submission finish that keeps her moving up the flyweight rankings.

Confidence: 7.5 / 10

UFC Fight Night 272 · April 4, 2026 · Meta APEX, Las Vegas · Prelims on Paramount+. Odds for reference only.

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MMA Reporter

We are specialize in statistics-based MMA analysis, focusing on striking numbers, grappling metrics, pressure rates, and historical performance trends. At MMApredict, we use data modeling and matchup evaluation to offer fans smarter predictions and deeper insights into every fight. No emotions — just clean, researched breakdowns.